Libertarians and government shutdown may throw Virginia governor race to Dems

In Virginia’s gubernatorial election today, current Attorney General Ken Cuccinelli is expected to lose to former Democratic Party chairman Terry McAuliffe. Virginia, a hotly contested state in recent presidential elections, is an important prize for both parties. The state was reliably Republican until recent years when Virginians voted for Barack Obama twice.

After a dead heat for much of the spring and summer, the race trended towards McAuliffe in late summer. Polling data archived on Real Clear Politics and the Wikipediapage dedicated to the race show polls split between the two candidates between January and July. In September, Mr. McAuliffe began to edge away from Mr. Cuccinelli and in October he picked up a commanding, often double digit, lead for most of October. In recent days, two polls have shown Mr. Cuccinelli closing the gap, but still trailing.

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Ken Cuccinelli (Gage Skidmore/Wikimedia)

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Government shutdown lessons for the GOP

Ted Cruz (Gage Skidmore)

The Republican Party suffered another humiliating defeat at the hands of Barack Obama yesterday. The Republicans essentially got nothing in the deal to end the government shutdown and were barely able to keep the spending caps of the sequestration, one of their few victories, in place.

The past few weeks have seen Republican approval plummet to record lows in several polls including those by Gallup and NBC News/Wall Street Journal. A new Pew pollreleased Oct. 16 shows that Tea Party support among Republicans has fallen by nine points since June. Independents disapprove of the Tea Party by a 19 point margin. GOP supporters feel betrayed by the deal. Reactions range from anger at “RINOs” or the Tea Party to resignation that the Republican Party is totally ineffective and unworthy of support.

While there is very little upside to the debacle in the short term for Republicans, it does provide them with a few hard lessons to learn. If the GOP can take these lessons to heart, it may eventually save itself and the turn the country around in the process.

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A path forward for Republicans

Ted Cruz (Gage Skidmore)

As the government shutdown goes through its third week, poll after poll indicates that Republicans are taking the brunt of the blame. AsExaminer noted last week, an NBC News/Wall St. Journal poll found approval of the Republican Party at a historic low. Generic congressional polls (summarized on Real Clear Politics), which have been in a dead heat all year, have turned against Republicans since the shutdown. Recent polling shows a consistent advantage for Democratic candidates.

Through it all, Republicans have made no headway in defunding the Affordable Care Act. In fact, the negotiations to reopen the government have shifted toward a new Democratic demand to undo the sequester cuts from last January. The sequester represented a rare GOP victory during the Obama era. It also worked. As Stephen Moore pointed out in theWall St. Journal, the sequester law actually reduced spending and cut the deficit by about half. Removing the sequester’s spending limits would represent a major defeat for Republicans.

The government shutdown also tarnishes the Republican reputation for fiscal responsibility, an area where Republicans polled well before the shutdown. The shutdown is costing an estimated $160 million per day on the conservative side. Higher estimates rise to more than $1 billion per day in lost growth and other factors. To add insult to injury,the House voted last week to give furloughed federal workers their back pay, which means that federal workers will be paid for doing nothing if the Senate passes the bill.

 

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GOP shoots self in foot with defund vote

The House Republicans collectively took careful aim at their feet and fired today with a vote to defund the Affordable Care Act, popularly known as “Obamacare.” The continuing budget resolution passed this morning, largely along party lines. One Republican, Scott Rigell of Virginia, voted against the measure and two Democrats, Jim Mathison (Utah) and Mike McIntyre (N.C.), voted for passage according to CNN.

The vote to defund comes amid a flurry of warnings from GOP strategists that defunding Obamacare is impossible and will likely backfire on the party. Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.) told Newsmax on Sept. 18 that “the president appears now politically to be in favor of shutting down the government” in order to score a “political win.”

Two days earlier, Republican National Committee Chairman Reince Priebus said, “I think he wants this thing to happen, a shutdown of the government.” The comments, made on the Hugh Hewitt Show, were quoted in the Huffington Post.

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How a government shutdown might affect you

Diliff/Wikimedia Commons

As the debate over control of the federal budget speeds the government toward a shutdown this weekend, many Georgians are likely wondering what effect a shutdown would have on local services provided by the federal government. The federal government pervades American life at all levels from mail delivery by the postal service to government checks for Social Security recipients and, most obviously and importantly, protection by the U.S. military and federal law enforcement agencies.

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